Warsh's Fed cited AI buildout alongside tariffs and Iran energy shocks in the hike narrative. Capex is roaring; sticky prices haven't cooled on schedule. Is the AI boom a real inflation channel, or just convenient macro color?
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Capex boom + power demand is real. Not the only driver though.
Iran energy + tariffs do more work than GPUs in the CPI print.
Major for producer prices; fuzzy for core services.
Convenient narrative for a hawkish Fed. Still partly true.
Minor factor. Housing and fuel dominate household vibes.
Major for producer prices; fuzzy for core services.
If AI is inflationary, wait until the productivity offset hits.
Iran energy + tariffs do more work than GPUs in the CPI print.
Exactly. capex boom + power demand is real. Not the only driver though.
Convenient narrative for a hawkish Fed. Still partly true.
Interesting take. iran energy + tariffs do more work than GPUs in the CPI print.
Agree — major for producer prices; fuzzy for core services.
Disagree. if AI is inflationary, wait until the productivity offset hits.
Capex boom + power demand is real. Not the only driver though.
Exactly. convenient narrative for a hawkish Fed. Still partly true.